Deployment Labs
Module 4 · Lesson 5 of 5 · 8 min

Your bottleneck and prediction

The bottleneck, its lead and the prediction on one page, ready to sign and lock on day 14.

This is the pilot kit's pre-registration, filled in from your answers: the bottleneck and why, its lead, how it's valued, and the prediction with its dip, window, kill criteria and thresholds. The leadership team confirms the bottleneck. The bottleneck lead and the person who runs the loop sign the prediction on day 14, and then it's locked.

Anything still missing is flagged below, with a link back to the lesson where you add it.

Your prediction sheet: 0 of 10 parts done0%
Friction list →The bottleneck and why →Bottleneck lead →How it's valued →Today's level and source →Predicted level and window →Kill criteria →Success and failure →Where freed time goes →Signed and locked →
Pre-registration · The Deployment Framework

Your organisation

Bottleneck and prediction · locks on day 14

The bottleneck
Name your bottleneck in lesson 3.
Why this one
Not set yet. Add it
Type
Capacity. Not enough hands for the work arriving.
Bottleneck lead
Not set yet. Add it
How it's valued
Not set yet. Add it
Current level
Not set yet. Add it
Predicted change
Not set yet. Add it
Measurement window
Days 60–90
Expected early dip
Up to 10% lower in weeks 2–4 after Improve starts (days 22–43). Not read as failure until the window closes.
Kill criteria
Not set yet. Add it
Where freed time goes
Not set yet. Add it
Disclosure baseline
Amnesty survey on day 5, compared with single sign-on and expense records
Success threshold
Not set yet. Add it
Failure threshold
Not set yet. Add it
The prediction, drawn
Add today's level and your predicted level to draw the chart.
Friction list · 0 items
Nothing on the list yet. Start it in lesson 2

Signed and locked on day 14. Any later change is recorded, and the original prediction is still scored, so the result can count either way.

Bottleneck lead
Runs the loop
Date
Sign and lock on day 14

Once the bottleneck lead and the person who runs the loop have signed the printed sheet, lock it here. After that, any change is recorded beside the original, and the original is what gets scored.

Needs the bottleneck, its lead, both levels, kill criteria and both thresholds.
Your output

Get the print-ready prediction sheet

Your details unlock printing, saving as PDF and copying the prediction sheet. A copy comes to Deployment Labs so we can help if you want it.

  • Print or save as PDF, ready to sign on day 14
  • Copy as text for your own documents
  • The day-14 checklist for the bottleneck lead

Taking the course with your leadership team? Use the same team code, and your answers can be compared when we talk.

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What happens next

With the prediction locked, the first loop moves from finding to improving. Module 5 covers days 15 to 90: getting more out of the bottleneck with the people and tools you already have, before anything new is bought. You'll redesign the work before automating it, train people on their own work in their protected hours, managers first, and pace everything else to what the bottleneck can absorb, so faster work upstream doesn't just make a bigger pile.

Keep the friction list going in the weekly meetings while you do. The bottleneck lead checks the handoffs every two weeks, and on day 90 module 8 scores the result against the prediction you just wrote.

Deployment Labs runs this first loop with leadership teams as a guided pilot, using the same forms. If you'd like help, book a call and bring your prediction sheet.

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Writing down your prediction
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Redesign before you automate